Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Bologna vs AS Roma
Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM CDT · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence ★★★☆☆Home
Bologna
56%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
AS Roma
22%
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Analyst Reasoning
Bologna shows exceptional recent form (5 consecutive wins, 5 goals for / 1 against) with strong defensive solidity, warranting a modest upward adjustment to home win probability. Roma's form is mixed (1W-2D-2L in last 5) with inconsistent attacking output and defensive lapses, supporting a slight reduction in away win odds. Home advantage and Bologna's momentum trend justify a +2.1pp increase to pH and corresponding decreases to pD and pA, while expected goals reflect Bologna's superior recent efficiency.
Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45
Integrity Lock
This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:29:13.035Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.
Model Breakdown
Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)
xG: 2.50 — 1.61
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, round context, and available news
Data quality score: 58/100 · verdict moderate