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Probabilistic Analysis

Match Predictions

Every fixture is analysed by the SPX AI Quant Prediction Model — Dixon-Coles + Elo (Davidson 3-way) + xG-Poisson, blended with per-league optimal weights and reviewed by an AI contextual layer. Each prediction is locked with a SHA256 hash before kickoff— you can verify the forecast wasn't changed after the result.

How the model works →Track record · 54% · 2814 graded

Showing 40 of 40

Mon, Jun 8·10:00 PM ET
Peru crestPeruvsSpain crestSpain

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

15%
25%
60%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·2:00 AM ET
Vanuatu crestVanuatuvsFiji crestFiji

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

62%
26%
12%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.9·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·5:35 AM ET
China PR U23 crestChina PR U23vsTajikistan U23 crestTajikistan U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

36%
46%
18%
Model pick:DRAW·xG 1.2·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·6:00 AM ET
Cambodia crestCambodiavsHong Kong crestHong Kong

Friendlies · Friendly International

2 out of 5 confidence

66%
23%
12%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.6·◆ T−24h

Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only

Tue, Jun 9·6:00 AM ET
Thailand U23 crestThailand U23vsUAE U23 crestUAE U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

43%
27%
30%
Lean:HOME· close call (12pp margin)·xG 4.4·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·7:30 AM ET
Philippines crestPhilippinesvsMyanmar crestMyanmar

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

62%
23%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·7:35 AM ET
China crestChinavsThailand crestThailand

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

27%
23%
50%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.9·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Angola crestAngolavsCentral African Republic crestCentral African Republic

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

46%
33%
20%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Oman crestOmanvsKuwait crestKuwait

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

40%
32%
28%
Lean:HOME· close call (8pp margin)·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Ethiopia crestEthiopiavsMalawi crestMalawi

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

50%
37%
13%
Model pick:HOME·xG 1.2·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Botswana crestBotswanavsNiger crestNiger

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

16%
36%
48%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 1.9·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Mauritania crestMauritaniavsLiberia crestLiberia

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

39%
39%
22%
Lean:HOME· close call (0pp margin)·xG 1.9·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Togo crestTogovsBenin crestBenin

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

51%
31%
18%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·8:00 AM ET
Tanzania crestTanzaniavsRwanda crestRwanda

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

42%
26%
32%
Lean:HOME· close call (9pp margin)·xG 3.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·9:00 AM ET
Indonesia crestIndonesiavsMozambique crestMozambique

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

70%
19%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·10:00 AM ET
Bahrain crestBahrainvsSyria crestSyria

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

21%
23%
56%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·10:00 AM ET
Azerbaijan U21 crestAzerbaijan U21vsKyrgyz Republic U20 crestKyrgyz Republic U20

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

34%
25%
41%
Lean:AWAY· close call (6pp margin)·xG 3.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·10:30 AM ET
Kyrgyzstan crestKyrgyzstanvsPalestine crestPalestine

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

31%
43%
26%
Lean:DRAW· close call (13pp margin)·xG 1.1·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·10:30 AM ET
Russia U21 crestRussia U21vsIraq U23 crestIraq U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

76%
16%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.7·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·10:45 AM ET
Republic of Ireland U21 crestRepublic of Ireland U21vsQatar U23 crestQatar U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

55%
27%
18%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·11:00 AM ET
Armenia crestArmeniavsMoldova crestMoldova

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

39%
30%
31%
Lean:HOME· close call (8pp margin)·xG 3.2·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·11:00 AM ET
Congo DR crestCongo DRvsChile crestChile

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

71%
21%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·11:00 AM ET
Tajikistan crestTajikistanvsIndia crestIndia

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

66%
23%
11%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.6·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·12:00 PM ET
Equatorial Guinea crestEquatorial GuineavsComoros crestComoros

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

41%
36%
23%
Lean:HOME· close call (5pp margin)·xG 2.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·12:00 PM ET
Moldova U21 crestMoldova U21vsGeorgia U21 crestGeorgia U21

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

42%
29%
30%
Lean:HOME· close call (12pp margin)·xG 3.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·12:00 PM ET
Liberia crestLiberiavsSierra Leone crestSierra Leone

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

25%
44%
31%
Lean:DRAW· close call (13pp margin)·xG 1.3·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·12:30 PM ET
Belarus crestBelarusvsBurkina Faso crestBurkina Faso

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

47%
27%
26%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.8·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·1:00 PM ET
Hungary crestHungaryvsKazakhstan crestKazakhstan

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

46%
36%
18%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·1:00 PM ET
Russia crestRussiavsTrinidad and Tobago crestTrinidad and Tobago

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

79%
15%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.0·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·1:00 PM ET
Algeria U23 crestAlgeria U23vsMauritania U23 crestMauritania U23

Friendlies · Friendly International

2 out of 5 confidence

72%
22%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.0·◆ T−24h

Thin data — forecast shown as free / experimental only

Tue, Jun 9·1:00 PM ET
Egypt U19 crestEgypt U19vsRussia U19 crestRussia U19

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

61%
25%
14%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.7·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·2:00 PM ET
Azerbaijan crestAzerbaijanvsSan Marino crestSan Marino

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

80%
14%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.6·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·7:00 PM ET
Saudi Arabia crestSaudi ArabiavsSenegal crestSenegal

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

20%
19%
60%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 4.7·◆ T−24h
Tue, Jun 9·7:00 PM ET
Brazil U17 crestBrazil U17vsUnited States U17 crestUnited States U17

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

78%
16%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.9·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·9:00 PM ET
Argentina crestArgentinavsIceland crestIceland

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

83%
13%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.0·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Tue, Jun 9·9:00 PM ET
Iraq crestIraqvsVenezuela crestVenezuela

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

61%
29%
10%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.4·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Wed, Jun 10·12:00 PM ET
Pakistan crestPakistanvsAfghanistan crestAfghanistan

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

60%
28%
12%
Model pick:HOME·xG 2.3·◆ T−24h
Wed, Jun 10·3:45 PM ET
Portugal crestPortugalvsNigeria crestNigeria

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

47%
29%
24%
Model pick:HOME·xG 3.5·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Wed, Jun 10·4:00 PM ET
England crestEnglandvsCosta Rica crestCosta Rica

Friendlies · Friendly International

3 out of 5 confidence

75%
17%
Model pick:HOME·xG 4.1·◆ T−24h

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Wed, Jun 10·4:00 PM ET
Bolivia crestBoliviavsAlgeria crestAlgeria

Friendlies · Friendly International

5 out of 5 confidence

17%
74%
Model pick:AWAY·xG 3.1·◆ T−24h

Analytical forecasts only. Our probabilities are calibrated estimates, not guarantees. The model misses genuine upsets by design — see the track record for full transparency.

SoccerPortalX does not provide betting advice. How you use this analysis is entirely up to you and subject to local laws regarding football analytics and probability services.