Fiorentina shows volatile recent form (2W-2L in last 5) with defensive fragility (conceded 7 in two losses), offsetting home advantage. Sassuolo's trajectory is similarly mixed but shows recent attacking threat (3-1 win). The baseline home edge is modest and justified; downward adjustment to pH reflects Fiorentina's defensive instability and recent away-form struggles, while slight xG reduction accounts for inconsistent finishing patterns in both teams.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45