Skip to main content
← All predictions

Serie A · Regular Season - 34

Napoli vs Cremonese

Kickoff: Friday, April 24, 2026 at 6:45 PM UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★★☆

Home

Napoli

82%

Draw

Draw

14%

Away

Cremonese

4%

Expected goals: 2.9—0.6(total 3.5)
Upset risk: 2/10

Analyst Reasoning

Napoli shows mixed recent form (2W-1D-2L) but has stabilized with two consecutive wins; Cremonese is in severe distress with one draw in last five matches and conceding heavily (1-2-0-1-5 GF pattern). Home advantage at Maradona is substantial. Baseline slightly underweights Napoli's current momentum and Cremonese's defensive fragility; modest upward adjustment to pH justified.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:14.283Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

31ce937fa97722e0c976331bd25d690388f437fa7d4fa380826f62f4f11a5bd4
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Verify yourself via the API.

Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 82%D 14%A 4%

xG: 2.87 — 0.62

LLM contextual review

H 83%D 13%A 4%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 71/100 · verdict publish

How the model works →