Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Torino vs Inter
Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC · Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence ★★★☆☆Home
Torino
20%
Draw
Draw
20%
Away
Inter
60%
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Analyst Reasoning
Torino's recent form is volatile (1W-3L in last 5, including a 6-0 away loss) but they've shown occasional attacking capability at home; Inter's form is mixed with two losses in cup play but solid Serie A results. The baseline undervalues Torino's home-ground effect slightly given their 1-0 win at home most recently, warranting modest upward adjustment to pH and xG_H. Inter remain favorites but recent cup struggles and Torino's home resilience elevate upset risk moderately.
Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45
Integrity Lock
This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:27.670Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.
Model Breakdown
Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)
xG: 1.45 — 2.62
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, round context, and available news
Data quality score: 54/100 · verdict moderate