Arsenal's recent form is strong (4W-1D) with solid defensive control, but the baseline already reflects their home advantage and quality. Newcastle shows mixed Premier League results (2W-2L in league play) despite a cup blowout; their away record is inconsistent. A modest downward adjustment to Arsenal's win probability accounts for Newcastle's occasional away resilience and the inherent variance in late-season matches, while slightly elevating draw and away-win chances to reflect Newcastle's unpredictability rather than pure underdog status.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45