Fulham's recent form is concerning (1W-3L in last 5, including two consecutive defeats), while Aston Villa shows resilience despite mixed results (1W-2D-2L). Home advantage at Craven Cottage provides modest support for Fulham, but their defensive fragility (conceded 8 goals in last 5 matches) and inconsistent attacking output warrant a slight downward adjustment to home win probability. Villa's away record is poor, but their draw tendency and defensive solidity in draws suggest draw risk is underestimated; modest upward adjustment to draw and away win probabilities reflects form-adjusted uncertainty.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45