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Premier League · Regular Season - 34

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM CDT · Anfield, Liverpool

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Liverpool

45%

Draw

Draw

33%

Away

Crystal Palace

22%

Expected goals: 1.4—0.9(total 2.3)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Liverpool shows strong recent form (4W-1L, 10 goals in last 5) with dominant home performances, justifying a modest upward adjustment to pH. Crystal Palace's mixed record (2W-2D-1L) and away-game fragility support the baseline underdog positioning. However, data quality concerns (opponent IDs like '746', '588', '848' appear corrupted) and the late-season fixture timing (round 34) introduce moderate uncertainty; confidence capped at 3.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:58.319Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

5155bbc272a6dcc43fa606fe6a55ad518a6e656705342c1eb0cea628fb2880df
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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 43%D 34%A 23%

xG: 1.36 — 0.94

LLM contextual review

H 47%D 32%A 22%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 52/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →