West Ham shows stronger recent momentum (3W-1D-1L vs Everton's 1W-3D-1L over comparable windows), with better goal differential and more convincing away performances. Home advantage at London Stadium adds modest edge. Everton's form is cautious and draw-heavy, suggesting defensive solidity but limited attacking thrust. Baseline slightly underweights West Ham's recent trajectory; modest upward adjustment to pH justified by form gap, though confidence is moderate given Everton's defensive resilience and the inherent volatility of mid-table Premier League fixtures.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45