Championship · Regular Season - 40
Southamptonvs
Ipswich
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Southampton
57%
Draw
Draw
24%
Away
Ipswich
19%
Model pick: Southampton
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Southampton shows stronger recent form (3W-2D in last 5) vs Ipswich's mixed record (3W-2L), and home advantage at St. Mary's is material. Dixon-Coles and xG models align closely on a ~60% home win; Elo's 38% reflects historical strength but lags current trajectory. Both teams carry similar injury burdens (~10 and 8 unavailable), so no net adjustment there. Modest upward shift to pH (+1.2pp) reflects Southampton's home form and momentum; slight downward trim to pA (-0.7pp) reflects Ipswich's recent inconsistency away from home. Confidence is moderate (3/5) because Elo's divergence signals some
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:46:03 AM
b8ec797eb5473d3155c58275a6eed80ea63bfe06ee4ab88aa32e1a2fa29495af
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.63 — 1.51
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +119 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.98 — 0.98
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 60/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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