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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Angers vs Paris Saint Germain

Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM CDT · Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Angers

3%

Draw

Draw

7%

Away

Paris Saint Germain

90%

Expected goals: 0.9—4.2(total 5.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Baseline heavily favors PSG (90.7%), which aligns with quality gap, but Angers' recent W+D sequence (last 2 games) and PSG's mixed form (1W-1D-1L in last 3 Ligue 1 matches) warrant modest upward adjustment to home win and draw probabilities. PSG's expected-goals output remains elite but slightly compressed due to recent inconsistency; Angers' xG floor raised marginally from home resilience. Confidence moderate due to small sample volatility and PSG's inherent quality dominance.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 3%D 6%A 91%

xG: 0.86 — 4.25

LLM contextual review

H 4%D 8%A 88%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →