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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens

Kickoff: Friday, April 24, 2026 at 6:45 PM UTC · Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★★☆

Home

Stade Brestois 29

45%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

Lens

34%

Expected goals: 2.4—2.2(total 4.6)
Upset risk: 6/10

Analyst Reasoning

Lens shows strong recent form (4W-1L in last 5, including dominant away wins) against mixed Brest trajectory (1W-2L-2D). Brest's home advantage is offset by Lens's attacking momentum and superior recent opponent quality. Baseline slightly overweights home edge; modest downward adjustment to pH with corresponding shift to pA reflects Lens's form trajectory and away-game competence.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:17.550Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 48%D 22%A 30%

xG: 2.53 — 2.04

LLM contextual review

H 42%D 20%A 39%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 70/100 · verdict publish

How the model works →