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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Le Havre vs Metz

Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 3:15 PM UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Le Havre

71%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

Metz

8%

Expected goals: 2.2—0.6(total 2.8)
Upset risk: 3/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Le Havre shows mixed but stable form (2W-2D-1L) with home resilience despite recent away loss; Metz is in severe distress (0W-1D-4L) with catastrophic defensive collapses (5 and 4 goals conceded in last two home matches). Home advantage and Metz's structural fragility warrant modest upward adjustment to home win probability and slight reduction to away threat, though Le Havre's own inconsistency prevents aggressive conviction.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:11.380Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

c2204ed2d09bddbb377a3526fd90c3ee8043f30bbd5e220686128b3b858d0596
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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 70%D 22%A 8%

xG: 2.15 — 0.67

LLM contextual review

H 72%D 19%A 9%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →