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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Lorient vs Strasbourg

Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 8:00 AM CDT · Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Lorient

61%

Draw

Draw

24%

Away

Strasbourg

15%

Expected goals: 2.2—1.1(total 3.3)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Lorient's recent form is strong (4W-1L, 9 goals in last 5) but the lone loss was away to a top-tier opponent (106-rated), suggesting vulnerability on the road. Strasbourg shows inconsistency (2W-2D-1L) with mixed defensive stability, though their last outing was a win. Home advantage moderates Lorient's edge; we reduce pH by ~3.5pp and raise pA slightly to reflect Strasbourg's resilience and Lorient's away-game fragility pattern.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:29:56.713Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

59523c88d0f09837252ed742dec5580933cee39cf5e5ed800248f242d29e74e6
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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 62%D 23%A 14%

xG: 2.26 — 1.06

LLM contextual review

H 59%D 25%A 16%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →