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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Lyon vs Auxerre

Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:00 AM CDT · Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Lyon

49%

Draw

Draw

30%

Away

Auxerre

21%

Expected goals: 1.6—1.0(total 2.6)
Upset risk: 3/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Lyon shows strong recent form (4W-1L over last 5, including three consecutive clean sheets at home), while Auxerre is in severe decline (1D-4L over last 5 with zero goals in four of those matches). Home advantage and Lyon's defensive solidity warrant upward adjustment to pH and downward to pA; the draw probability compresses as Auxerre's attacking impotence makes stalemates unlikely.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:37.895Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 46%D 31%A 22%

xG: 1.58 — 1.06

LLM contextual review

H 52%D 28%A 20%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →