Marseille shows volatile form with heavy defeats (0-5, 0-3) mixed with wins, suggesting inconsistency and defensive fragility against stronger opponents. Nice's recent record is similarly unstable with three losses in five games and minimal away-form threat (0-2, 0-1 in last two away matches). Home advantage supports a modest Marseille edge, but both teams' erratic defensive records and Nice's away struggles warrant only marginal downward adjustment from baseline; confidence is low due to high variance in both squads' recent outputs.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45