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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Paris FC vs Lille

Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 3:15 PM UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Paris FC

13%

Draw

Draw

23%

Away

Lille

63%

Expected goals: 1.0—2.1(total 3.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Paris FC shows modest home resilience (2W-2D-1L recent) against weaker/mid-table sides, warranting a +4pp upward adjustment to pH despite baseline pessimism. Lille's recent form is volatile (2W-2D-1L) with a heavy European fixture (comp=3, likely Champions League) on 2026-02-19 suggesting fatigue; their away record is fragile. Expected goals adjusted upward for home team and downward for away team to reflect tighter defensive margins and reduced Lille sharpness post-European duty.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:15.712Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

69cd38442d493853aa11cc298cbfc3e85aa9fdf9b9d83a5d9cea273ad7fa0b53
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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 12%D 23%A 66%

xG: 0.92 — 2.28

LLM contextual review

H 16%D 25%A 60%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →