Rennes' baseline dominance is significantly undermined by a severe recent collapse: 3 consecutive home losses (0–3, 0–4, 0–2) with zero goals scored across four of five matches. Nantes, while also struggling, show marginally better resilience and have conceded fewer goals in recent away fixtures. Home advantage and squad familiarity still favor Rennes, but their defensive fragility and attacking drought warrant a substantial downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA. Confidence is moderate due to the extreme nature of Rennes' form—regression toward the mean is possible, but the pattern is too consistent to ignore.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45