Toulouse shows modest home resilience (1W-1D-3L recent form) and has tightened defensively in recent matches, warranting a small upward adjustment to home win probability. Monaco remains the clear favorite but recent inconsistency (mixed results including a 1-3 loss to mid-table opposition) and a draw away suggest slight vulnerability; their xG is reduced modestly to reflect execution risk. The baseline heavily favors Monaco; qualitative signals support that edge but with reduced conviction than the model implies.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45