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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg

Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 3:30 PM UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

Borussia Dortmund

79%

Draw

Draw

12%

Away

SC Freiburg

9%

Expected goals: 3.6—1.3(total 4.9)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Dortmund's baseline is strong but recent form shows inconsistency: three wins sandwiched around a DFB-Pokal loss to Bayern (comp 2), suggesting fatigue or tactical vulnerability in high-pressure matches. Freiburg's away record is poor (1W–2L–1D in last 5) but they drew 3–3 at home recently, indicating some attacking threat. Modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD reflects Dortmund's slight form wobble and Freiburg's capacity to stay competitive; home advantage and quality gap still favour Dortmund decisively.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:23.905Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 80%D 10%A 10%

xG: 3.65 — 1.33

LLM contextual review

H 78%D 13%A 9%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →