Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM CDT · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence ★★★☆☆Home
1. FC Köln
26%
Draw
Draw
17%
Away
Bayer Leverkusen
57%
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Analyst Reasoning
Köln shows mixed home form (2W–2L–1D in last 5) with defensive fragility (conceded 8 in 5 matches), but baseline undervalues home-ground resilience in a direct matchup. Leverkusen's recent record is stronger (3W–2D) but includes cup fixtures and a goalless draw; their away form is less dominant than their overall standing suggests. Modest upward adjustment to home win probability and slight reduction to away win reflects Köln's home-field advantage and Leverkusen's recent inconsistency, though Leverkusen remain favored.
Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45
Integrity Lock
This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:44.870Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.
Model Breakdown
Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)
xG: 2.45 — 3.50
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, round context, and available news
Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate