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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31

1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli

Kickoff: Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM CDT · Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★☆☆☆

Home

1. FC Heidenheim

56%

Draw

Draw

21%

Away

FC St. Pauli

23%

Expected goals: 2.5—1.6(total 4.1)
Upset risk: 6/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Both teams show poor recent form (Heidenheim 1W-2D-2L, St. Pauli 0W-2D-3L over last 5), with Heidenheim slightly more stable at home. Baseline already reflects home advantage; marginal upward adjustment to pH reflects Heidenheim's marginally better home record (2D-1L vs St. Pauli's away struggles), but low confidence due to both teams' inconsistency and St. Pauli's defensive vulnerability creating upset risk.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:28:47.944Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

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Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 55%D 21%A 23%

xG: 2.50 — 1.64

LLM contextual review

H 56%D 21%A 23%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →