Bayern's recent form is exceptional (5 consecutive wins, 15 goals in last 5 matches) versus Mainz's stagnation (2 draws, 1 heavy loss in last 3). The baseline already favors Bayern heavily, but the form divergence—especially Bayern's attacking consistency and Mainz's defensive fragility—warrants a modest downward adjustment to Mainz's win probability and slight upward shift to Bayern's. Mainz at home offers minimal upset risk given their current trajectory.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45