Skip to main content
← All predictions

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen

Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 1:30 PM UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence ★★★☆☆

Home

VfB Stuttgart

83%

Draw

Draw

9%

Away

Werder Bremen

8%

Expected goals: 5.0—2.0(total 7.0)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Analyst Reasoning

Stuttgart's baseline dominance is tempered by recent inconsistency (1W-1D-1L in last 3 league games, including a home loss to a mid-table side). Bremen's form is dire (1D-4L in last 5), but their recent away record shows defensive vulnerability rather than complete collapse. Adjusting down Stuttgart's win probability slightly due to fatigue/form volatility and up draw/away chances modestly, while reducing expected goals to reflect tighter defensive execution than the 5.23 baseline suggests.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45

Integrity Lock

This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:00.724Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.

31c4de986a9d34c13c662f28ba8d1fd91fd258175674148fea9b9456d975cf9f
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

Verify yourself via the API.

Model Breakdown

Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)

H 85%D 7%A 7%

xG: 5.23 — 1.95

LLM contextual review

H 81%D 11%A 8%

Based on recent form, round context, and available news

Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate

How the model works →