Alaves' baseline home advantage is tempered by inconsistent recent form (2W-2L in last 5, including a home loss to mid-table opponent). Mallorca shows volatile results but has won their last match convincingly at home and performed well against stronger sides (drew with 728-rated team). Away form is Mallorca's weakness, yet the gap between teams appears narrower than the 54pp baseline suggests; modest downward adjustment to home win probability with corresponding uplift to away win reflects genuine competitive uncertainty.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45