Atletico's baseline is inflated by a 4-goal outlier vs. weak opposition (comp 2); recent form shows 3W-1L with mixed defensive control (conceded 8 in 5 games). Athletic Club shows inconsistency but has won 2 of last 5 and drawn 1, suggesting they are not a pushover away from home. Downward adjustment on home win probability reflects Atletico's defensive fragility and Athletic's modest upside potential, while maintaining home advantage.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45