Getafe shows severe recent deterioration (1W-2D-2L over last 5, 2 consecutive home losses) with minimal attacking output (0.6 goals/game), while Barcelona demonstrates strong home form (4W-1L, 3.4 goals/game) despite away-match fragility. Barcelona's home-ground advantage and Getafe's defensive vulnerability at the Coliseum shift the baseline significantly toward the visitor. Confidence is high due to clear form divergence, though Getafe's defensive setup and low upset risk reflect their structural resilience rather than genuine competitive threat.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45