Osasuna shows stronger recent form (2W-2D-1L) with consistent attacking output, but baseline already reflects home advantage heavily. Sevilla's away record is poor (1W-0D-4L in last 5) and they've conceded heavily to top sides; however, their home win vs. mid-table suggests inconsistency rather than collapse. Modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD reflects Sevilla's defensive fragility away but Osasuna's own vulnerability to concede (2+ goals in 3 of last 5), reducing conviction in a dominant home win.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45