Rayo's recent form shows two wins but mixed consistency (2W–2D–1L in last 5), with defensive solidity at home offset by away vulnerability. Real Sociedad's trajectory is stronger (3W–1D–1L) despite the heavy loss to Atlético, and they've demonstrated attacking threat across competitions. Home advantage and Rayo's defensive record at Vallecas support a modest baseline, but Sociedad's upward momentum and superior recent goal-scoring (especially in cup play) warrant a modest probability shift toward the away side and draw, reducing home win conviction slightly.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45