La Liga · Regular Season - 32
Oviedo vs Elche
Kickoff: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 2:15 PM UTC · Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence ★★★☆☆Home
Oviedo
49%
Draw
Draw
22%
Away
Elche
28%
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Analyst Reasoning
Oviedo shows marginal home advantage and recent mixed form (1W-2L-2D), while Elche is in severe distress with 4 losses in last 5 matches and collapsing goal differential. Home venue effect and Elche's defensive fragility warrant modest upward adjustment to home win probability, though Oviedo's own inconsistency and low recent output (1 goal in last away loss) prevent stronger conviction. Moderate upset risk reflects Elche's unpredictability when desperate.
Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45
Integrity Lock
This prediction was generated at 2026-04-24T19:30:05.240Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. If the hash below matches after kickoff, the forecast above is exactly what we published before the match.
Model Breakdown
Statistical baseline (Dixon-Coles)
xG: 2.29 — 1.84
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, round context, and available news
Data quality score: 51/100 · verdict moderate