Villarreal's recent form is concerning: 3 losses in last 5 matches with only 1 win, suggesting defensive fragility and inconsistency despite home advantage. Celta Vigo shows strong momentum with 3 wins in last 5 and a +3 goal differential, indicating improved attacking threat and resilience. The baseline underweights Celta's upward trajectory and Villarreal's defensive vulnerability; we adjust home win probability down 6 points and away win up 5 points, with slightly elevated expected goals for the visitor.

Claude Haiku 4.5 + Dixon-Coles ensemble · weight 55/45