Pro League · Regular Season - 30
Al Khaleej Saihatvs
Al Najma
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET · Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Al Khaleej Saihat
43%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Al Najma
32%
Lean: Al Khaleej Saihat
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Component models show material disagreement (xG favors home at 57.9%, Elo favors draw at 43.5%, Dixon-Coles splits the difference). Home team shows mixed recent form (2W-1D-2L, 1–3 and 1–4 losses offset by 4–1 and 2–1 wins); away team is in a slump (0–1 loss most recent, three draws in last four). No injuries to either squad. Given low inter-model consensus and volatile recent results for both sides, small upward adjustment to home win probability and slight reduction to away win probability, staying well within ±8pp guardrails.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:45:54 AM
faea3f777df582e78150d3cf1ddf25ec8af88e9c8450cf631ed7a8809f2d6f1f
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.48 — 2.24
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +99 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.10 — 1.21
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 58/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-04-27T05:45:54.736Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.