Pro League · Regular Season - 30
Al Shababvs
Al-Fateh
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET · Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Al Shabab
81%
Draw
Draw
13%
Away
Al-Fateh
7%
Model pick: Al Shabab
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows strong home conviction (0.922 pH), but Elo's sharp disagreement (0.371 pH, 110-point Elo diff) signals model tension. Al Shabab's recent form is mixed (2W-1D-2L, including a heavy 2-5 home loss), while Al-Fateh shows similar volatility (1W-2D-2L). No injuries on either side. The baseline's extreme home skew (81.7%) appears over-reliant on Dixon-Coles' low-score correction; xG (71.9% pH) and Elo suggest meaningful draw and away-win probability. Modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA reflects genuine model disagreement and
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:45:41 AM
597f12893e49a73bfb1f068f66b4586287452b019ca69bd5ef9fba15bc9c61c3
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 6.24 — 1.77
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +110 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 3.08 — 1.35
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 58/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-04-27T05:45:41.471Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.