Pro League · Regular Season - 30
NEOMvs
Al-Hazm
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET · King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
NEOM
51%
Draw
Draw
23%
Away
Al-Hazm
26%
Model pick: NEOM
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors pH at 0.509. Elo's sharp disagreement (0.332 pH, 0.44 pD) signals low conviction; xG aligns closer to Dixon-Coles. NEOM's recent form is mixed (2W–2L–1D over 5 games, home struggles evident) while Al-Hazm shows similar volatility (1W–3L–1D). No injuries on either side. Home-venue advantage and the baseline's modest home lean are retained; minimal adjustment upward (+0.6pp pH, −0.5pp pD, −0.1pp pA) reflects marginal confidence in NEOM's slight edge without overweighting noisy recent results.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:45:45 AM
aa0b9f24fde7ee3c0ce308dd1f9e79a6746cb08e73840ca2f6b8ca9023803681
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.42 — 1.66
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +65 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.64 — 1.20
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 58/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-04-27T05:45:45.391Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.