Pro League · Regular Season - 30
Al-Hilal Saudi FCvs
Damac
Kickoff: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET · Kingdom Arena, Riyadh
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
82%
Draw
Draw
13%
Away
Damac
5%
Model pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows extreme home conviction (92.9% pH), but Elo's sharp disagreement (40.3% pH, 146-point diff) signals model tension. Al-Hilal's recent form is mixed (2W-2D in last 5, including a 1-1 draw at home vs mid-table), while Damac shows severe weakness (1D-3L, 0 goals in last 2 games). No injuries on either side. Modest downward adjustment to pH (-1.9pp) and upward to pD (+1.9pp) reflects Elo's caution and Al-Hilal's inconsistent finishing despite dominance; xG-driven model (80.2% pH) anchors the blend. Confidence is moderate due to component di
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/27/2026, 5:45:59 AM
3320c703ee966ecbc302bfc3fedec1c48f461d8aad4b1e56ecefe9b1598ca9d7
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 5.04 — 1.03
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +146 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.94 — 0.82
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 58/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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