Friendlies · Friendly International
USAvs
Germany
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET · Soldier Field,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
USA
25%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
Germany
54%
Model pick: Germany
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 25% (T−48h) to 25% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Sharp disagreement between Elo (31% home, 46% draw) and xG (77% away) signals low conviction; baseline already reflects this via heavy Dixon-Coles weighting. USA's recent form is strong (4W-1D in last 5, all home/neutral), but Germany's recent record is mixed with two consecutive losses. No injuries on either side. Modest upward adjustment to pH (+3.5pp) and pD (+1.5pp) reflects USA's home-field momentum and Germany's recent inconsistency, but staying well within ±8pp bounds given component model disagreement. Friendly context and T−48h uncertainty warrant conservative positioning.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:00:55 PM
a283bc711dea89309cc2aa7342d469420343332a22464e5c25af30c9aabb5ea4
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.93 — 3.21
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +46 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.60 — 3.77
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:00:55.284Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.