J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Shimizu S-pulsevs
V-varen Nagasaki
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET · IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Shimizu S-pulse
56%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
V-varen Nagasaki
15%
Model pick: Shimizu S-pulse
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Shimizu S-pulse shows modest home advantage and recent W-D-L form with low-scoring patterns; V-varen Nagasaki has dropped two consecutive league matches (0-2, 1-3) with poor away record. Dixon-Coles (heavily weighted at 0.81) and xG align on home preference (~52-60%), but Elo's 34.6% pH and 43.8% draw signal suggests tighter contest than baseline implies. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.2pp) reflects Nagasaki's recent away form weakness; slight downward draw adjustment (-0.7pp) to reflect Shimizu's home control. Moderate confidence due to component disagreement an
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:04:51 AM
9a402cb86a0e573949eac67d7838ce41d835e30e59f99ff834834d23643ec876
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.02 — 0.93
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +82 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.33 — 0.69
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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