J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Tokyo Verdyvs
Kashima
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Tokyo Verdy
15%
Draw
Draw
21%
Away
Kashima
64%
Model pick: Kashima
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Baseline heavily weighted to Dixon-Coles (0.81), which shows Tokyo Verdy at just 13.7% despite playing at home. Elo (0.19 weight) is notably more bullish on the home side (22.8%), suggesting the statistical models themselves disagree on home-team strength. Tokyo's recent form is poor (1W–4L over 5 games) but includes a 3–1 home win vs a mid-table opponent; Kashima is in better form (3W–2D) and stronger on paper (Elo diff −65). No injuries on either side. The xG model's extreme away bias (76.3%) combined with Dixon-Coles' heavy weighting creates low conviction overall. Small upward adjustment t
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:15 AM
19ce1cdf115937a1c4fa9f7d11098d1790051203e58b7f18283d1bf9172bbddb
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 0.80 — 2.37
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: -65 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.50 — 2.19
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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