J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Avispa Fukuokavs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET · Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Avispa Fukuoka
34%
Draw
Draw
29%
Away
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
37%
Lean: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · close call (3pp margin)
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Avispa's recent form (2 consecutive 0-2 home losses) is concerning, but the three component models show sharp disagreement (xG heavily favors away at 47.5%, Elo favors draw at 44.3%, Dixon-Coles anchors home at 33.6%), signaling low conviction overall. No injuries on either side. Modest upward adjustment to home win probability (+1.4pp) reflects home-venue stability in J1, but the disagreement between models and Avispa's poor recent scoring (0 goals in last 2 matches) warrant staying close to baseline and keeping confidence low.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:29 AM
709a6e91e0498cc04a13adb460278b1356e517542e32a9cf126b0c02ca19ebe5
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.26 — 1.40
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +40 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.13 — 1.57
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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