J1 League · Regular Season - 13
JEF United Chibavs
Yokohama F. Marinos
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET · Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
JEF United Chiba
36%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Yokohama F. Marinos
39%
Lean: Yokohama F. Marinos · close call (3pp margin)
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Baseline ensemble is well-calibrated; component models show moderate disagreement (Elo favors draws at 43.8%, Dixon-Coles and xG cluster around home 35-37%). JEF's recent form is mixed (2W-2L-1D, 0 goals in last two games) while Yokohama is in a deeper slump (1W-4L). Home advantage and JEF's slightly better underlying xG support a modest upward nudge to pH (+1.2pp), with corresponding small reductions to pD and pA. No injuries to either squad. Elo's strong draw signal (80-point gap but 43.8% pD) suggests defensive stability; respect this by holding pD near baseline. Low confidence due to both
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:34 AM
efe1acd5704d1186dc0fa0ab4df3b62d68c97f68d4e6712e51e52d03aa14e4c0
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.62 — 1.82
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +80 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.55 — 1.62
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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