J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Kyoto Sangavs
Gamba Osaka
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kyoto Sanga
54%
Draw
Draw
25%
Away
Gamba Osaka
21%
Model pick: Kyoto Sanga
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Component models show material disagreement (Dixon-Coles 59.2% home vs Elo 34.5%), signaling low conviction. Recent form favors Gamba (3W-2D vs Kyoto's 2W-2D-1L), and xG model leans away (31.4% vs 45.2% home). Modest downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA reflects away-team momentum, but baseline Dixon-Coles dominance and home-venue effect warrant restraint within ±8pp guardrails. No injuries to either squad. Confidence low due to model disagreement.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:41 AM
5eba0836fe05c18fe68a9f47a7ff70aaea8f8082803d2e197c38bbb937837934
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.21 — 1.24
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +81 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.72 — 1.40
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 61/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-04-28T01:05:41.820Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.