J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Nagoya Grampusvs
Fagiano Okayama
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Nagoya Grampus
54%
Draw
Draw
27%
Away
Fagiano Okayama
19%
Model pick: Nagoya Grampus
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Nagoya shows modest home-form strength (2W-1D-2L recent, 0-0 draw away most recent) and xG/Dixon-Coles align around 57-61% home win. Elo's 34% home is a significant outlier, suggesting structural disagreement on team quality. Okayama's recent form is weak (1W-3D-1L) with away-game struggles. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.4pp) reflects home-venue advantage and Okayama's fragility, but confidence is moderate (3/5) due to Elo's divergence and limited recent sample depth.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:46 AM
f710bb19b7e6d97817b62983efb8ca64cae70b482031bf28b11b186b0ee0ba55
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.12 — 1.16
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +78 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.08 — 1.07
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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