J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Urawavs
Kawasaki Frontale
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET · Saitama Stadium, Saitama
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Urawa
44%
Draw
Draw
24%
Away
Kawasaki Frontale
32%
Lean: Urawa
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Urawa shows stronger recent form (4W-1D in last 5) vs Kawasaki's volatility (2W-2L-1D), supporting a modest home edge. However, Elo's 72-point differential and high draw probability (43.9%) signal structural competitiveness; xG and Dixon-Coles both lean home but not decisively. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH and xG reflects Urawa's consistency, with corresponding minor downward shifts to pD and pA to respect the baseline's draw signal and Elo's caution.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:05:58 AM
e4c35bc519d3eb3a0f8f3e240db18dee34431c571da643f5536fe34ca66c845f
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 2.68 — 2.37
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +72 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.06 — 1.59
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 65/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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