J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Kashiwa Reysolvs
FC Tokyo
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Kashiwa Reysol
31%
Draw
Draw
31%
Away
FC Tokyo
39%
Lean: FC Tokyo
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Kashiwa's recent form (2 losses in last 2 league games) conflicts with the baseline's modest home-win lean; FC Tokyo shows steadier form (W-D-D-W-D). However, component models diverge sharply (xG heavily favors away at 57%, while Dixon-Coles favors home at 30%), signaling low conviction. No injuries on either side. Small upward adjustment to pH (+1.4pp) reflects home-venue stability, but away probability held near baseline given Tokyo's recent resilience and the models' disagreement. Confidence is low due to conflicting signals.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:06:02 AM
d70d391521785759ac24c9450f9643e50822f0bab45f8349cccee21983f82d90
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.51 — 1.79
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +21 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.94 — 1.79
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-04-28T01:06:02.162Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.