J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Mito Hollyhockvs
Machida Zelvia
Kickoff: Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET · Best Denki Stadium, Mito
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 5 out of 5 confidenceHome
Mito Hollyhock
40%
Draw
Draw
31%
Away
Machida Zelvia
28%
Lean: Mito Hollyhock
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
One snapshot logged so far · 3 more stages will appear as the kickoff approaches
Component models show sharp disagreement (Dixon-Coles 42.6% home vs xG 27.1%), signaling low conviction. Mito's recent form is poor (3 losses in last 5, all away), but Machida's recent record is stronger (3 wins in 5). Home-venue advantage and Elo's modest +18 differential support a modest upward adjustment to pH, but the xG model's skepticism and Mito's away-form weakness counsel restraint. No injuries on either side. Staying close to baseline with +0.5pp home, -0.6pp draw.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model (DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0) + Claude Haiku 4.5 · 55/45
T−24h stage hash · locked 4/28/2026, 1:06:05 AM
a5a520870c0811b52a524386f713adaf4f240f3cbe207940385f12b25aa70207
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 1.73 — 1.41
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +18 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 0.96 — 1.33
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 62/100 · verdict publish
Integrity Lock
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