Friendlies · Friendly International
Belgiumvs
Tunisia
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET · King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
Belgium
83%
Draw
Draw
11%
Away
Tunisia
6%
Model pick: Belgium
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 83% (T−48h) to 83% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and shows extreme home conviction (95.9% pH), but Elo (65-point gap) and xG disagree sharply, suggesting model uncertainty. Belgium's recent form is strong (3W-2D) but includes a 0-0 draw vs France; Tunisia shows competitive resilience in recent qualifiers. No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, conservative adjustment: modest downward shift on pH (−3pp) and upward on pD/pA (+1pp each) to reflect component disagreement and friendly-match volatility, while respecting the baseline's strong home signal.
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 6:00:15 AM
c8792378bf480f647c77566c7d242ef45ee611c0cb0580fecf52071dd0e03e80
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 9.99 — 2.73
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +65 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 1.85 — 0.94
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T06:00:15.412Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.