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Friendlies · Friendly International

Croatia crestCroatiavsSlovenia crestSlovenia

Kickoff: Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET · Gradski stadion Varazdin,

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

Croatia

49%

Draw

Draw

29%

Away

Slovenia

22%

Model pick: Croatia

Expected goals: 2.0—1.3(total 3.4)
Upset risk: 5/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%49%49%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 49% (T−48h) to 49% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

Croatia shows strong recent form (4W-1D in last 5, clean sheets, +8 GD) vs Slovenia's defensive struggles (3D-1L, 0 goals in last 3 matches). However, Elo model (19% weight) signals caution with a 99-point gap and 43.5% draw probability, suggesting Slovenia's defensive solidity in recent draws may be undervalued by goal-based models. No injuries on either side. Friendly context and 48h pre-match uncertainty warrant conservative +1.2pp home, −1pp draw adjustment from baseline; xG and Dixon-Coles alignment supports modest home edge.

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/5/2026, 12:00:18 PM

6e52dddd20aa038f129a92e9c481bac6640aa394380f9cfd99a3a12eda588528

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 48%D 29%A 22%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 51%D 26%A 23%

xG: 2.02 — 1.33

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 36%D 43%A 20%

Elo gap: +99 pts

xG-Poisson

H 48%D 25%A 27%

Expected goals: 1.58 — 1.13

LLM contextual review

H 50%D 28%A 22%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-05T12:00:18.568Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

3d13aa8974c856ce6203ded46cb71fde4cf82c548f6b9ed1561f7e9211b6669c
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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