Friendlies · Friendly International
Englandvs
New Zealand
Kickoff: Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium,
Outcome Probabilities
Confidence 3 out of 5 confidenceHome
England
76%
Draw
Draw
17%
Away
New Zealand
7%
Model pick: England
Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★
Prediction Evolution
How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives
Home win moved from 76% (T−48h) to 76% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come
Baseline is heavily weighted toward Dixon-Coles (0.81), which produces a strong home favourite. Elo (0.19 weight) signals much tighter contest (39.6% home), reflecting England's modest Elo advantage (+138). Recent form shows England in strong form (3W in last 5, clean sheets), while New Zealand in poor form (1W in last 5, 4 losses). No injuries on either side. However, the sharp Elo–Dixon-Coles disagreement (45pp gap on pH) suggests low conviction; friendly context and neutral venue (Tampa) further reduce predictability. Small downward adjustment to pH and upward to pD/pA respects the baseline
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM
T−24h stage hash · locked 6/4/2026, 12:01:09 PM
9b9ca67c3186f759b77cea5e2ef4cef44c9e6687ad56ff3bafb837777a9aa472
SPX AI Quant Prediction Model
DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0
Dixon-Coles (Poisson)
xG: 3.19 — 0.70
Elo (Davidson 3-way)
Elo gap: +138 pts
xG-Poisson
Expected goals: 2.56 — 0.75
LLM contextual review
Based on recent form, news, injuries
Data quality score: 44/100 · verdict moderate
Integrity Lock
This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-04T12:01:09.458Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.