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Friendlies · Friendly International

England crestEnglandvsCosta Rica crestCosta Rica

Kickoff: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET

Outcome Probabilities

Confidence 3 out of 5 confidence

Home

England

75%

Draw

Draw

17%

Away

Costa Rica

8%

Model pick: England

Expected goals: 3.3—0.8(total 4.1)
Upset risk: 4/10

Moderate data coverage — confidence capped at 3★

Prediction Evolution

How the model's confidence changes as new info arrives

HomeDrawAway
25%50%75%75%75%??T−48hT−24hPre-matchHalf-time

Home win moved from 75% (T−48h) to 75% (T−24h) → 0pp · 2 stages still to come

England's recent form is exceptional (5 consecutive wins, 17–0 GF/GA in last 5 matches), supporting a modest upward shift from baseline pH. However, Elo's sharp disagreement (37% vs 83% Dixon-Coles) signals structural uncertainty—likely reflecting England's historical tournament underperformance vs. friendly dominance. Costa Rica shows mixed recent form (2 draws, 3 wins) with defensive fragility (conceded 5 in last 4 games). No injuries on either side. Conservative +1.2pp adjustment to pH, −1.8pp to pD, +0.6pp to pA, respecting the baseline's heavy Dixon-Coles weighting and the model disagreem

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM

T−24h stage hash · locked 6/8/2026, 12:00:26 PM

a1ff3eceb6d2ff6142dd617b27cc17b04c919f9657a076c7bc9eb5890cae170a

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model

DC 0.81 · Elo 0.19 · xG 0

H 74%D 18%A 7%

Dixon-Coles (Poisson)

H 83%D 12%A 5%

xG: 3.25 — 0.79

Elo (Davidson 3-way)

H 37%D 43%A 20%

Elo gap: +109 pts

xG-Poisson

H 80%D 14%A 7%

Expected goals: 2.59 — 0.61

LLM contextual review

H 76%D 17%A 8%

Based on recent form, news, injuries

Data quality score: 47/100 · verdict moderate

Integrity Lock

This prediction's latest stage was generated at 2026-06-08T12:00:26.257Z and its canonical JSON hashed with SHA256. Each prior stage carries its own hash inside the corresponding tab so you can audit every step independently.

d8c1892b85399e35ca2f14c25570e3cc5a6a5a12b732145df41839f1ae428580
✓ Hash verified — contents unchanged

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