Dixon-Coles dominates the ensemble (0.81 weight) and anchors a very strong home forecast (pH 0.892), but Elo's sharp disagreement (pH 0.369, +108 Elo diff suggests structural model divergence) and xG's moderate view (pH 0.668) create low-conviction territory. Portugal's recent form is mixed (2W–2D in last 5, including a 2–2 draw vs rank-769 at home), while Chile shows modest upside (2W–2D–1L, but mostly lower-ranked opponents). No injuries on either side. At T−48h with lineups unpublished, we make conservative adjustments: slight downward nudge to pH (−1.7pp) and modest upward to pD (+1.3pp) t

SPX AI Quant Prediction Model · DC 0.81 / Elo 0.19 / xG 0 · 55/45 weighted ensemble · stats + LLM